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Future
Long-range forecasting, existential risk, and the horizons we're building toward.
SpaceX's Starship Completes First Orbital Refueling Demonstration: A Milestone for Deep Space Architecture
In a mission that drew live viewership exceeding 47 million, Starship successfully transferred 100 metric tons of liquid oxygen between two vehicles in low Earth orbit, validating a technology that is essential for NASA's Artemis lunar base construction and eventual Mars missions.
Stanford Existential Risks Survey: 68% of AI Researchers Believe AGI Could Arrive Within 15 Years
The annual survey of 524 leading AI researchers reveals that belief in near-term AGI emergence has grown from 47% in 2023 to 68% in 2026, while concern about catastrophic risk from misaligned AI systems has increased by 31 percentage points over the same period.
Neuralink's N2 Brain-Computer Interface Achieves 99.1% Accuracy in Typing-By-Thought Trial
Neuralink's second-generation implant enables four paralyzed patients to compose text at 90 words per minute with 99.1% character accuracy using only neural signals, a 4.5x improvement over the first-generation device and a significant step toward the company's goal of restoring full communication ability.
Commonwealth Fusion Systems Achieves Net Energy Gain of 3.2x in SPARC Reactor Test
The private fusion company has demonstrated a Q-factor of 3.2 in its SPARC demonstration reactor — meaning it produced 3.2 times more energy than was delivered to the plasma — marking the first private fusion reactor to achieve sustained net gain and accelerating the path to commercial fusion power.
Waymo Crosses 10 Million Rider-Only Miles in a Single Month, No Human Safety Driver
Alphabet's Waymo reports that its fully autonomous vehicles completed 10.3 million rider-only miles in April across San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin — a 340% increase from the same period last year — with an accident rate of 0.11 per 100,000 miles versus the national average of 1.9.
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